Will mortgage rates ever be 3 again?
After all, higher rates equate to higher minimum payments. So, you may be wondering if, and when, mortgage rates might fall to 3% or lower again - and whether or not it's worth waiting to buy a home until they do. Although rates could fall to 3% again one day, it's not likely to happen any time soon.
Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, agrees that “there will be no return to the 3% rates we had during the pandemic“. She says that “while mortgage rates likely will come down some in the second half of the year, they will remain above 6% for most borrowers“.
Projected Interest Rates in the Next Five Years
ING's interest rate predictions indicate 2024 rates starting at 4%, with subsequent cuts to 3.75% in the second quarter. Then, 3.5% in the third, and 3.25% in the final quarter of 2024. In 2025, ING predicts a further decline to 3%.
The ESR Group expects mortgage rates to decline in 2024, ending the year below 6 percent. The lower rate environment is expected to boost refinance volumes, which are already on the upswing, as evidenced by the recent uptick in Fannie Mae's Refinance Application-Level Index, to nearly double their 2023 levels in 2024.
Advertising Disclosure: When you use our links to explore products, we may earn a fee but that in no way affects our editorial independence. As a baseline scenario, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall to the low-6% range through the end of 2024, dipping into high-5% territory by early 2025.
Goldman said it expects 30-year mortgage rates will drop to 6.3% by the end of 2024, and fall slightly in 2025 to 6% as the Fed starts to cut interest rates. Previously, Goldman had expected the 30-year mortgage rate to be at 7.1% by the end of 2024 and at 6.6% by the end of 2025.
According to the Fed's most recent economic projections from December, economists don't see inflation subsiding to 2.0% on a consistent basis until 2026, which could mean higher but declining short-term interest rates for the next two years.
The 10-year treasury constant maturity rate in the U.S. is forecast to decline by 0.8 percent by 2026, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall by 1.6 percent. From seven percent in the third quarter of 2023, the average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to reach 5.4 percent in 2026.
In CBO's last full set of economic projections, which were released in February, the organization estimated that interest rates on the federal funds rate would rise to a fourth-quarter average of 4.8 percent in 2023 before falling to 2.6 percent by mid-2025.
To combat ongoing inflation, it raised the federal funds rate 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023. After its December 2023 session, the Fed forecasted it would make three quarter-point cuts by the end of 2024 to lower the benchmark rate to 4.6%.
Will 2024 be a better time to buy a house?
“The housing market is off to a good start this year, as consumers benefit from falling mortgage rates,” said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun in the association's December pending home sales report. NAR forecasts that sales will rise by 13 percent in 2024.
Inflation and Fed hikes have pushed mortgage rates up to a 20-year high. 30-year mortgage rates are currently expected to fall to somewhere between 5.8% and 6.1% in 2024. Instead of waiting for rates to drop, homebuyers should consider buying now and refinancing later to avoid increased competition next year.
If those projections remain and the Fed begins to lower its key rate, mortgage rates will presumably follow suit. Sunbury predicts the Fed will cut rates by between 100 to 125 basis points starting in May or June of 2024. “This would bring the policy rate to 4% to 4.25%,” Sunbury explains.
“If the data continues to do what it has been doing, there's no reason rates couldn't go down into the fives, possibly even high-fours.” There are some caveats, though. For one, Graham mentioned that if there were a recession next year, then that could move mortgage rates even further below 5%.
Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and Mortgage Bankers Association
In its November 2023 Mortgage Finance Forecast, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) anticipates 30-year rates starting in 2024 at 7.1% and gradually declining to 6.1% at the close of the year before dipping as low as 5.5% in 2025.
That is what the Fed will do most likely. They will probably cut short-term interest rates by a quarter of a percent at either their June or July 2024 meeting. Thereafter they will cut rates by a quarter percent two more times in 2024, continuing the process in 2025.
“Mortgage interest [rates] can change every day and sometimes even multiple times a day, so we always recommend that borrowers lock in their rate.”
Last year, the White House projection for bill rates in 2030 was 2.4%. Such a level would be much higher than has been typical since the turn of the century. Three-month bill rates averaged around 1.5% over that period.
Make a larger down payment
Being able to put a larger amount down on a house will lower your loan-to-value ratio (LTV) and generally also your mortgage rate. For example, if you make a 20% down payment, your LTV is 80%.
According to their latest forecast for 30-year mortgage rates in October 2023, they expect them to range from 7.40% to 7.86%, with an average of 7.63%. They also predict that mortgage rates will peak at 9.41% in May 2024, before gradually declining to 3.67% by November 2027.
Will 2026 be a good time to buy a house?
However, increases should slow between 2024 and 2026, and rates may even decline in 2027. Among the factors that could impact mortgage rates in the next 5 years are inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and economic growth. Homebuyers should consider locking in a low mortgage rate now, as rates are expected to rise soon.”
The current mortgage interest rates forecast is for rates to continue going down. After spiking to 7.79% last October, rates finally began to drop — managing a 1.19 percentage point decline in just 12 weeks. While there are no guarantees, our market expert recommends cautious optimism as we move through 2024.
But the signs seem to be that interest rates may have peaked for this cycle. Many experts predict interest rates will remain at their current level for most of 2024. This may mean that mortgage rates stay at or about the same level as now for many months before possibly starting to fall towards the end of 2024.
A “good” mortgage rate is different for everyone. In today's market, a good mortgage interest rate can fall in the mid-6% range, depending on several factors, such as the type of mortgage, loan term, and individual financial circ*mstances.
