Why are REITs declining?
More than a year of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve pushed down returns on real estate investment trusts, or REITs. While higher rates negatively impacted nearly every sector of the economy in 2022 and most of 2023, real estate was hit especially hard.
A high interest rate environment and bearish investor sentiments have made it a tough year for REIT companies. In general, REITs are underperforming the real estate sector, which isn't exactly having the best year of its life either.
The overall business performance of the S-REIT sector has been lacklustre and some segments of the industry have not been able to recover to pre-COVID levels, either due to a change in business dynamics or due to an inflationary environment. Office REITs have faced challenges due to the new work-from-home (WFH) trends.
In fact, REIT total returns bounced back with impressive performance in the last quarter of 2023. Based on historical experience, the convergence of the wide valuation gap between public and private real estate will likely ensure continued REIT outperformance into 2024.
The REIT (VNQ) market has been in a bear market for over two years now with the broader market averages dropping by over 25%. But despite that, most REITs have kept growing their dividend. Most of them hiked in 2022, 2023, and will hike again in 2024.
But since REITs are invested in property, there's more protection against the horror show of having shares crash to $0. By law, 75% of a REITs asset must be invested in real estate. The market value of the property owned by the REIT offers a bit of protection, as long as the value of the property doesn't go to zero.
Investing in REITs can add some diversification to your portfolio and give you access to passive income, liquidity and excellent long-term returns. However, taxes can be more expensive with REITs compared to other investment options, and there are still risks involved with the real estate market.
With rate cuts on the horizon, we believe investors have an opportunity to continue investing into S-Reits as the high estimated dividend yield of close to 7 per cent in 2024 will look increasingly attractive.
REITs historically perform well during and after recessions | Pensions & Investments.
Bottom line. Investors eyeing REITs may find a potential recovery ahead. With rate cuts on the horizon, many publicly traded REITs have rebounded, and the industry as a whole seems well-poised for a recovery in the coming year.
Why not to buy REITs?
Non-traded REITs have little liquidity, meaning it's difficult for investors to sell them. Publicly traded REITs have the risk of losing value as interest rates rise, which typically sends investment capital into bonds.
REIT bankruptcies have indeed been a rarity since the REIT debacle of the mid-1970s, when high leverage and highly speculative real estate investments resulted in numerous REIT failures. Thereafter, REIT managers became far more conservative in their investment and financing practices.
With healthy property fundamentals and a favorable interest rate environment, REIT fund managers expect the sector to deliver double digit returns this year.
REIT 12 Months Forecast
Based on 31 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets to REIT holdings in the last 3 months. The average price target is $27.76 with a high forecast of $31.20 and a low forecast of $23.99. The average price target represents a 16.83% change from the last price of $23.76.
Due in part to their attractive current yields, REITs have tended to deliver annualized total returns to investors of 10 to 12 percent over time.
During the REIT operation period that can last up to 7 to 10 years, the sponsor manages its properties to produce an income stream. REIT management seeks to monetize the portfolio in an effort to realize a capital gain for investors, although there's always the risk of a loss instead.
A lot of REIT investors focus too way much on the dividend yield. They think that a high dividend yield implies that a REIT is cheap and a good investment opportunity. In reality, it is often the opposite, and the dividend does not say much, if anything, about the valuation of a REIT.
REIT Stock Performance and the Interest Rate Environment
Over longer periods, there has generally been a positive association between periods of rising rates and REIT returns. This is because rising rates generally reflect improvement in the underlying fundamentals.
To qualify as a REIT, a company must have the bulk of its assets and income connected to real estate investment and must distribute at least 90 percent of its taxable income to shareholders annually in the form of dividends.
REITs. When interest rates are falling, dependable, regular income investments become harder to find. This benefits high-quality real estate investment trusts, or REITs. Strictly speaking, REITs are not fixed-income securities; their dividends are not predetermined but are based on income generated from real estate.
Can you become a millionaire from REITs?
So, are REITs the magic shortcut to becoming a millionaire? Not quite. But they can be a powerful tool to build your wealth over time, like a slow and steady rocket taking you towards financial freedom. Remember, the key is to invest wisely, do your research, and choose REITs that match your goals and risk tolerance.
REITs have outperformed stocks on 20-to-50-year horizons. Most REITs are less volatile than the S&P 500, with some only half as volatile as the market at large. Several individual REITs delivered significantly higher returns than the S&P 500.
REITs don't have to pay a corporate tax, but the downside is that REIT dividends are typically taxed at a higher rate than other investments. Oftentimes, dividends are taxed at the same rate as long-term capital gains, which for many people, is generally lower than the rate at which their regular income is taxed.
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Over the long term, our research found that REITs have outperformed stocks. Since 1994, three REIT subgroups stood out for their ability to beat the S&P 500. Here's a closer look at these market-beating REIT types.
