Media influences on corn futures pricing (2024)

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,

Xinquan Zhou

Institute of Economics, School of Social Sciences, Tsinghua University

,

China

*Corresponding author: E-mails: xinquanzhou@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn and xinquan.zhou@hotmail.com

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,

Guillaume Bagnarosa

Rennes School of Business,

France

INRAe, IA, UMR SMART

,

France

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,

Michael Dowling

DCU Business School, Dublin City University

,

Ireland

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Jagadish Dandu

Zayed University,

United Arab Emirates

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European Review of Agricultural Economics, jbae002, https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbae002

Published:

16 March 2024

Article history

Received:

13 December 2022

Revision received:

23 December 2023

Editorial decision:

21 January 2024

Accepted:

19 February 2024

Published:

16 March 2024

Corrected and typeset:

18 March 2024

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Abstract

Understanding agricultural commodity futures is crucial for efficient business operations. This study employs textual machine learning on 290,271 articles (2009–2020) focusing on corn markets, aiming to model the impact of news on corn futures pricing. Our novel approach enables the identification of seven distinct topics within corn news, offering a comprehensive view of the news coverage spectrum. Soybean biofuel news notably influences corn prices, while exports, weather and wheat news significantly impact pricing uncertainty. These insights deepen our understanding of factors shaping corn futures and highlight machine learning’s potential in agricultural economic analysis, enabling more accurate market predictions and policy decisions.

© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics. All rights reserved. For commercial re-use, please contact reprints@oup.com for reprints and translation rights for reprints. All other permissions can be obtained through our RightsLink service via the Permissions link on the article page on our site–for further information please contact journals.permissions@oup.com.

This article is published and distributed under the terms of the Oxford University Press, Standard Journals Publication Model (https://academic.oup.com/pages/standard-publication-reuse-rights)

JEL

G13 - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing Q02 - Commodity Markets Q14 - Agricultural Finance

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