FDXStock | USD247.361.110.45% |
FedEx Probability Of Bankruptcy is used to show its chance of financial distress over the next two years of operations under current economic and market conditions. FedEx Probability Of Bankruptcy is determined by interpolating and adjusting FedEx Altman Z Score to account for off-balance-sheet items and missing or unfiled public information. All items used in analyzing the odds of distress are taken from the FedEx balance sheet as well as cash flow and income statements available from the company's most recent filings. Check out FedEx Piotroski F Score and FedEx Altman Z Score analysis.
For more information on how to buy FedEx Stock please use our How to Invest in FedEx guide.
FedEx | Probability Of Bankruptcy Net Income Per Employee Revenue Per Employee Average Assets Earnings Before Interest Taxes and Depreciation Amortization EBITDA Earnings Before Interest Taxes and Depreciation Amortization USD Earnings before Tax Average Equity Enterprise Value Free Cash Flow Invested Capital Invested Capital Average Market Capitalization Tangible Asset Value Working Capital Interest Coverage Long Term Debt to Equity Calculated Tax Rate PPandE Turnover Receivables Turnover Inventory Turnover Accounts Payable Turnover Accrued Expenses Turnover Operating Margin Cash and Equivalents Turnover Return on Investment Cash Flow Per Share Revenue to Assets Total Assets Per Share Quick Ratio Net Current Assets as percentage of Total Assets Asset Turnover Book Value per Share Current Ratio Debt to Equity Ratio Dividend Yield Dividends per Basic Common Share EBITDA Margin Earnings per Basic Share Earnings per Diluted Share Earnings per Basic Share USD Enterprise Value over EBIT Enterprise Value over EBITDA Free Cash Flow per Share Gross Margin Profit Margin Payout Ratio Price to Book Value Price to Earnings Ratio Price to Sales Ratio Return on Average Assets Return on Average Equity Return on Invested Capital Return on Sales Sales per Share Tangible Assets Book Value per Share Capital Expenditure Depreciation Amortization and Accretion Net Cash Flow or Change in Cash and Cash Equivalents Net Cash Flow Business Acquisitions and Disposals Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares Issuance Repayment of Debt Securities Payment of Dividends and Other Cash Distributions Net Cash Flow from Financing Net Cash Flow from Investing Net Cash Flow from Operations Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Cash Share Based Compensation Inventories Receivables Accounts Payable Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income Total Assets Current Assets Assets Non Current Cash and Equivalents Cash and Equivalents USD Total Debt Debt Current Debt Non Current Total Debt USD Shareholders Equity Attributable to Parent Shareholders Equity USD Goodwill and Intangible Assets Inventory Total Liabilities Current Liabilities Liabilities Non Current Trade and Non Trade Payables Property Plant and Equipment Net Trade and Non Trade Receivables Accumulated Retained Earnings Deficit Tax Liabilities Direct Expenses Consolidated Income Cost of Revenue Earning Before Interest and Taxes EBIT Earning Before Interest and Taxes USD Gross Profit Interest Expense Net Income Net Income Common Stock Net Income Common Stock USD Operating Expenses Operating Income Revenues Revenues USD Selling General and Administrative Expense Weighted Average Shares Weighted Average Shares Diluted Income Tax Expense Probability Of Bankruptcy |
At this time, FedEx's Free Cash Flow is fairly stable as compared to the past year. Market Capitalization is likely to rise to about 58.1B in 2023, whereas Net Income Per Employee is likely to drop slightly above 13.6K in 2023.
FedEx Probability Of Bankruptcy Analysis
FedEx's Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 (projected) | Receivables | 12.1B | 11.9B | 10.2B | 8.6B | Inventories | 587M | 637M | 604M | 533.6M |
Probability Of Bankruptcy | = | Normalized | Z-Score |
Current FedEx Probability Of Bankruptcy | Less than 1% |
Most of FedEx's fundamental indicators, such as Probability Of Bankruptcy, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, FedEx is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.
Our calculation of FedEx probability of bankruptcy is based on Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score, but not limited to these measures. To be applied to a broader range of industries and markets, we use several other techniques to enhance the accuracy of predicting FedEx odds of financial distress. These include financial statement analysis, different types of price predictions, earning estimates, analysis consensus, and basic intrinsic valuation. Please use the options below to get a better understanding of different measures that drive the calculation of FedEx financial health.
Is FedEx's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of FedEx. If investors know FedEx will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about FedEx listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.13) | Dividend Share 4.82 | Earnings Share 16.87 | Revenue Per Share 351.563 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.139 |
The market value of FedEx is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of FedEx that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of FedEx's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is FedEx's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because FedEx's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect FedEx's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between FedEx's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if FedEx is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, FedEx's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
FedEx Probability Of Bankruptcy Driver Correlations
Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for FedEx is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of FedEx Stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Probability Of Bankruptcy. Since FedEx's main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of FedEx's historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of FedEx's interrelated accounts and indicators.
Click cells to compare fundamentals
The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.
Competition |
Based on the latest financial disclosure, FedEx has a Probability Of Bankruptcy of 1.0%. This is 97.65% lower than that of the Air Freight & Logistics sector and significantly higher than that of the Industrials industry. The probability of bankruptcy for all United States stocks is 97.49% higher than that of the company.
FedEx Probability Of Bankruptcy Peer Comparison
Stock peer comparison is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It analyses FedEx's direct or indirect competition against its Probability Of Bankruptcy to detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics or determine the stocks which would be a good addition to a portfolio. Peer analysis of FedEx could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing FedEx by comparing valuation metrics of similar companies.
FedEx is currently under evaluation in probability of bankruptcy category among related companies.
FedEx Main Bankruptcy Drivers
2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 (projected) | ||
Return on Average Assets | 0.064 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 0.018 | 0.065 | 0.045 | |
Asset Turnover | 1.3 | 0.98 | 1.03 | 1.11 | 1.05 | 1.07 | |
Total Debt | 18.1B | 36.1B | 36.5B | 37.2B | 38.3B | 32.3B | |
Total Liabilities | 36.6B | 55.2B | 58.6B | 61.1B | 70.2B | 59.4B | |
Current Liabilities | 9.0B | 10.3B | 13.7B | 14.3B | 13.6B | 12.6B | |
Total Assets | 54.4B | 73.5B | 82.8B | 86.0B | 87.1B | 79.2B | |
Current Assets | 13.1B | 16.4B | 20.6B | 20.4B | 18.6B | 18.1B | |
Net Cash Flow from Operations | 5.6B | 5.1B | 10.1B | 9.8B | 8.8B | 8.3B | |
Weighted Average Shares | 260.6M | 261.2M | 265.3M | 259.2M | 251.4M | 247.0M | |
Weighted Average Shares Diluted | 265M | 262M | 268M | 266M | 256M | 300.2M |
FedEx ESG Sustainability
Some studies have found that companies with high sustainability scores are getting higher valuations than competitors with lower social-engagement activities. While most ESG disclosures are voluntary and do not directly affect the long term financial condition, FedEx's sustainability indicators can be used to identify proper investment strategies using environmental, social, and governance scores that are crucial to FedEx's managers, analysts, and investors.
Environment Score | Governance Score | Social Score |
FedEx Fundamentals
Return On Equity | 0.16 | ||||
Return On Asset | 0.0485 | ||||
Profit Margin | 0.05 % | ||||
Operating Margin | 0.08 % | ||||
Current Valuation | 92.99 B | ||||
Shares Outstanding | 249.89 M | ||||
Shares Owned By Insiders | 8.00 % | ||||
Shares Owned By Institutions | 77.19 % | ||||
Number Of Shares Shorted | 3.36 M | ||||
Price To Earning | 15.53 X | ||||
Price To Book | 2.30 X | ||||
Price To Sales | 0.70 X | ||||
Revenue | 90.16 B | ||||
Gross Profit | 24.4 B | ||||
EBITDA | 9.94 B | ||||
Net Income | 3.97 B | ||||
Cash And Equivalents | 6.86 B | ||||
Cash Per Share | 26.32 X | ||||
Total Debt | 38.33 B | ||||
Debt To Equity | 1.50 % | ||||
Current Ratio | 1.42 X | ||||
Book Value Per Share | 105.54 X | ||||
Cash Flow From Operations | 8.81 B | ||||
Short Ratio | 2.51 X | ||||
Earnings Per Share | 16.87 X | ||||
Price To Earnings To Growth | 1.02 X | ||||
Target Price | 297.75 | ||||
Number Of Employees | 328 K | ||||
Beta | 1.33 | ||||
Market Capitalization | 61.96 B | ||||
Total Asset | 87.11 B | ||||
Retained Earnings | 35.26 B | ||||
Working Capital | 5.02 B | ||||
Current Asset | 11.99 B | ||||
Current Liabilities | 8.01 B | ||||
Z Score | 3.02 | ||||
Annual Yield | 0.02 % | ||||
Five Year Return | 1.28 % | ||||
Net Asset | 87.11 B | ||||
Last Dividend Paid | 4.82 |
About FedEx Fundamental Analysis
The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze FedEx's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of FedEx using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of FedEx based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
FedEx Corporation provides transportation, e-commerce, and business services in the United States and internationally. FedEx Corporation was founded in 1971 and is based in Memphis, Tennessee. Fedex Corp operates under Integrated Freight Logistics classification in the United States and is traded on New York Stock Exchange. It employs 345000 people.
FedEx Investors Sentiment
The influence of FedEx's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in FedEx. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to FedEx's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in FedEx. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding FedEx can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around FedEx. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
FedEx's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for FedEx's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average FedEx's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on FedEx.
FedEx Implied Volatility | 74.29 |
FedEx's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of FedEx stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if FedEx's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that FedEx stock will not fluctuate a lot when FedEx's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards FedEx in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, FedEx's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from FedEx options trading.
Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis
Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as FedEx using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.
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When determining whether FedEx offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of FedEx's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Fedex Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Fedex Stock:
Check out FedEx Piotroski F Score and FedEx Altman Z Score analysis.
For more information on how to buy FedEx Stock please use our How to Invest in FedEx guide.
Note that the FedEx information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other FedEx's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Equity Search module to search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.
Complementary Tools for FedEx Stock analysis
When running FedEx's price analysis, check to measure FedEx's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy FedEx is operating at the current time. Most of FedEx's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of FedEx's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move FedEx's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of FedEx to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is FedEx's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of FedEx. If investors know FedEx will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about FedEx listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.13) | Dividend Share 4.82 | Earnings Share 16.87 | Revenue Per Share 351.563 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.139 |
The market value of FedEx is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of FedEx that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of FedEx's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is FedEx's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because FedEx's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect FedEx's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between FedEx's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if FedEx is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, FedEx's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
As someone deeply immersed in financial analysis and an enthusiast with demonstrable expertise in the subject matter, I can provide a comprehensive breakdown of the concepts and information mentioned in the article about FedEx's stock performance analysis. Let's delve into the key elements:
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Probability of Bankruptcy:
- The Probability of Bankruptcy is a crucial metric used to assess the likelihood of a company facing financial distress in the next two years.
- It is determined by interpolating and adjusting the Altman Z Score, considering off-balance-sheet items and missing/unfiled public information.
- The Probability of Bankruptcy is presented as a value between 0 and 100, with lower values indicating a lower probability of financial distress.
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Financial Metrics:
- Various financial metrics are employed to analyze FedEx's financial health, including Net Income Per Employee, Revenue Per Employee, Earnings Before Interest Taxes and Depreciation (EBITDA), and more.
- These metrics are derived from the company's balance sheet, cash flow, and income statements.
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Market Capitalization:
- The article mentions that FedEx's Market Capitalization is projected to rise to about 58.1 billion USD in 2023.
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Free Cash Flow:
- FedEx's Free Cash Flow is highlighted as stable in comparison to the past year.
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Fundamental Analysis:
- The Probability of Bankruptcy is part of a broader valuation analysis module that aids investors in identifying stocks trading above or below their real value.
- Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score are utilized, and the buy/sell recommendation is made based on whether the stock is undervalued or overvalued.
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Financial Ratios and Measures:
- The article provides a plethora of financial ratios and measures, including Return on Investment, Price to Earnings Ratio, Debt to Equity Ratio, Dividend Yield, and more.
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Peer Comparison:
- FedEx's Probability of Bankruptcy is compared to its peers in the Air Freight & Logistics sector and the broader Industrials industry.
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Earnings Projections:
- Key earnings projections are outlined, such as Quarterly Earnings Growth, Dividend Share, Earnings Share, and Quarterly Revenue Growth.
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Sustainability and ESG Scores:
- The article touches on sustainability, indicating that companies with high sustainability scores might receive higher valuations.
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Investor Sentiment:
- The influence of investor sentiment on FedEx's stock price appreciation or decline is acknowledged.
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Implied Volatility:
- FedEx's implied volatility is mentioned as a measure of market sentiment regarding potential stock price movements.
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Macroaxis Tools:
- The article refers to various tools provided by Macroaxis for portfolio optimization, sentiment analysis, and portfolio diagnostics.
In conclusion, the information presented in the article offers a detailed analysis of FedEx's financial health, performance, and future projections. It encompasses a wide range of financial metrics and tools, providing investors with a comprehensive understanding of the stock's potential.