Excess Pounds and Heart Disease: How to Calculate Your Risk (2024)

It’s certainly not breaking headline news that having overweight or obesity is harmful to your health. “As weight goes up, so does the risk of serious problems such as high blood pressure, diabetes and heart disease,” says cardiologist Leslie Cho, MD.

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But body size is just one number when it comes to calculating risk. Body shape matters, too.

So how do you figure out whether your shape is just-right or needs tweaking? Here are the key numbers to consider. (The math is minimal, we promise.)

The basics of body mass index

Odds are you’re familiar with body mass index (nickname: BMI).BMI factors in both height and weight to estimate how much body fat a person has. The scores break down like so:

  • Underweight: Below 18.5.
  • Normal/Healthy: 18.5 to 24.9.
  • Having overweight: 25 to 29.9.
  • Having obesity: Over 30.

BMI is easy to figure out, since handy BMI calculators are available to do the math for you. And the number is useful, Dr. Cho says. “For the majority of Americans, BMI is a pretty good indicator of risk.”

But it’s not perfect. BMI might overestimate risk in athletes who have a lot of muscle and little fat for their height. And it could underestimate risk in older people who have lost muscle tone.

Plus, body fat isn’t all created equal. It’s possible to have a healthy BMI, but still be at elevated risk for heart disease if your fat cells are settling in the wrong areas. To go beyond BMI basics, you’ll have to do a little navel-gazing. (In other words: Grab a tape measure, because it’s time to measure your waist!)

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Why waist size matters

You’d think that fat cells don’t have much to do except making you feel self-conscious at the beach. Wrong! They’re surprisingly busy.

“We used to think fat just hung out in the body, but that’s not the case,” Dr. Cho says. “Fat cells are extremely active. They release hormones and other chemicals that can fuel inflammation.”

Inflammation, in turn, is linked to an increased risk of many diseases, including nasty ones like heart disease, cancer and diabetes. And unfortunately for Old St. Nick and his bowl-of-jelly belly, fat cells in the abdomen are especially active.

From a heart disease perspective, it’s better to be a pear shape than an apple.

Measuring waist size

If you want to determine your health risk, waist size is an important number to measure. A study published in the Journal of the American Heart Association found that waist size was better than BMI at predicting the risk of heart attack, especially in women.

These measurements can help you clue into the situation around your middle:

  • Waist circumference. To measure your waist, wrap a tape measure around your middle just above your hipbones. Exhale, then check the number. In general, risk goes up when waist size measures more than 35 inches for women or 40 inches for men.(Note: If you’re from South Asia, China or Japan, risk goes up when your waist is more than 31 inches if you’re a woman or 35 inches for a man).
  • Waist-to-hip ratio. For even greater accuracy, get a feel for how much fat is stored in your waist, hips and rump. Measure your hips by holding the tape measure snugly around the widest point of your hips. Divide your waist measurement by your hip measurement. A healthy range is less than 0.8 inch for women, and 0.9 inch for men.
  • Waist-to-height ratio. Like the waist-hip ratio, a waist-height ratio looks at waist size in relation to — you guessed it! — your height. Ideally, your waist measurement should be less than half of your height. (So if you’re 5 foot 6, or 66 inches, your waist circumference should be less than 33 inches.)

Crunching the numbers for a healthy heart

How many math problems do you need to do to stay healthy? Dr. Cho says crunching all the numbers can help you paint a clearer picture of your risk. But if math isn’t your forte, BMI and waist circumference alone are good indicators of risk, Dr. Cho adds.

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“It’s a busy world out there. I want people to take ownership of their risk in a way that works for them.”

Ultimately, Dr. Cho says, people should view these numbers not as signs of doom and gloom, but as inspiration to adopt some healthier habits, if needed. Even small amounts of weight loss can improve the health of your heart.

“Sometimes the hardest things to do are the things that make the biggest difference,” she says. “If you are overweight, it’s important to make changes to your diet and exercise routines.”

Excess Pounds and Heart Disease: How to Calculate Your Risk (2024)

FAQs

How is a cardiovascular disease risk score calculated? ›

QRISK2 takes into account various risk factors for CVD, including age, gender, ethnicity, high blood pressure, cholesterol level, body mass index (height and weight), smoking, alcohol intake, and certain medical conditions such as diabetes, rheumatoid arthritis, and chronic kidney disease.

How does excess body weight put a person at risk for heart disease? ›

How does obesity increase the risk of heart and circulatory diseases? Excess weight can lead to fatty material building up in your arteries (the blood vessels that carry blood to your organs).

What is the waist measurement for heart disease risk? ›

Waist Circumference

This risk goes up with a waist size that is greater than 35 inches for women or greater than 40 inches for men. To correctly measure your waist, stand and place a tape measure around your middle, just above your hipbones. Measure your waist just after you breathe out.

How to calculate risk score? ›

The risk score is the result of your analysis, calculated by multiplying the Risk Impact Rating by Risk Probability. It's the quantifiable number that allows key personnel to quickly and confidently make decisions regarding risks.

How is heart disease risk measured? ›

A heart disease risk assessment includes a series of questions about certain risk factors, including age, family history, and lifestyle habits such as diet and exercise. It then calculates your risk of developing heart disease in the future.

What is the formula for calculating risk? ›

Risk is the combination of the probability of an event and its consequence. In general, this can be explained as: Risk = Likelihood × Impact. In particular, IT risk is the business risk associated with the use, ownership, operation, involvement, influence and adoption of IT within an enterprise.

What is a bad cardiac risk score? ›

If you have a 10 per cent risk, it means that out of 100 people like you, about 10 will have a heart attack or stroke in the next five years. As a rough guide: ˂5% is low risk. 5 – 10% is moderate risk.

What factors are used to calculate heart risk? ›

Using nine factors – including age, gender, race, cholesterol, blood pressure, smoking history, and diabetes – it generates one of four risk scores: low, borderline, intermediate, or high.

Can being 40 lbs overweight cause shortness of breath? ›

Excess weight against the chest wall also makes it harder for the muscles to draw in a deep breath and to breathe quickly enough. This worsens the brain's breathing control. As a result, the blood contains too much carbon dioxide and not enough oxygen.

How much weight do you gain with heart disease? ›

Weight gain is the first sign that your heart failure may be getting worse. Patients can gain up to 10 pounds of “extra” weight from fluid before feeling bad or swelling. Weigh daily... • at the same time in the morning, after you urinate (pee). while wearing what you sleep in, before eating or drinking.

Can weight loss reverse heart disease? ›

Exercise and weight loss can help to reverse heart failure when it's started early enough. However, losing weight and keeping fit is not always enough.

Is waist circumference better than BMI? ›

Body mass index (BMI) is not considered a valid criterion, because it does not reflect body fat distribution. Compared with BMI, measuring waist circumference (WC) is simple and inexpensive, yet effective for assessing body fat distribution and associated cardiovascular risk and mortality.

Is waist size more important than weight? ›

Unfortunately, your BMI isn't always the best indicator of health. Instead of worrying about how much weight you carry, you should be concerned about where you carry your excess body fat. The more fat you carry around your waist could mean more health problems down the road.

Is my waist too fat? ›

The larger your waist, the higher your waist to height ratio. A ratio over 0.5 to 0.59 suggests that you have excess fat around your belly. This means you have an increased risk of health problems. And if your ratio is 0.6 or above, your risk is even higher.

What is the cardiovascular risk score chart? ›

The cardiovascular risk chart is a simple and objective way of assessing the likelihood of experiencing a first major cardiovascular event (myocardial infarction or stroke) over the following ten years, when the values of six risk factors - gender, history of diabetes, smoking, age, systolic blood pressure and total ...

How is CMS risk score calculated? ›

The risk Score formula is equal to the sum of the demographic factors and the disease factors. The sum of those factors equals the raw risk score. CMS then applies several methodological adjustments to the raw risk score.

How to determine ASCVD risk score? ›

The information required to estimate ASCVD risk includes age, sex, race, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, blood pressure lowering medication use, diabetes status, and smoking status.

What is the smart risk score for cardiovascular disease? ›

The SMART risk score, containing 14 easy-to-measure clinical predictors, provides an opportunity to identify vascular patients at high risk for recurrent events. Carotid ultrasound findings add little to a risk score based on clinical characteristics and are inferior discriminators of risk when used in isolation.

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