Commodities are on a ‘crazy’ ride after Saudi talk of $100 oil (2024)

Reports that Saudi Arabia aims to push oil prices even higher

Author of the article:

Marc Jones, Reuters

Published Apr 19, 20184 minute read

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Commodities are on a ‘crazy’ ride after Saudi talk of $100 oil (1)

LONDON — Talk that Saudi Arabia has its sights on US$80-US$100 a barrel oil again and of more U.S. sanctions on Russia ignited a rally in commodities and resource stocks on Thursday, though the potential boost to inflation hit fixed-income assets.

It was set to be the strongest day for the commodity complex in eight months as Brent crude futures climbed past US$74 a barrel after a near 3 per cent jump overnight.

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Commodities are on a ‘crazy’ ride after Saudi talk of $100 oil (2)

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The surge came on a Reuters report that OPEC’s new price hawk Saudi Arabia would be happy for crude to rise to US$80 or even US$100, a sign Riyadh will seek no changes to a supply-cutting deal even though the agreement’s original target is now within sight.

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The leap in oil combined with fears that sanctions on Russia could hit supplies of other commodities to light a fire under the entire sector. Nickel jumped the most in 6-1/2 years on talk Nornickel – the world’s second-biggest producer of the metal – could be impacted.

Aluminum prices reached their highest since 2011, its raw material alumina touching an all-time peak before retreating when Russia floated the idea of a temporary nationalization of sanctions-hit giant Rusal.

“It has been a very erratic day, it’s a bit crazy,” said Rabobank metals sector economist Casper Burgering. “Nickel went up by almost 10 pct and aluminum by almost 8 per cent and now are coming right back down.” Expect more volatility, he said.

Such increases, if sustained though, could fuel inflationary pressures and investors hedged by selling sovereign bonds.

Commodities are on a ‘crazy’ ride after Saudi talk of $100 oil (3)

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Yields on U.S. two-year Treasuries stood at levels last visited in 2008 at 2.43 per cent and 10-year German yields went above 0.57 per cent for the first time in almost a month.

“Saudi Arabia wants higher oil prices and yes, probably for the IPO, but it isn’t just that,” an OPEC source told Reuters.

“Look at the economic reforms and projects they want to do, and the war in Yemen. How are they going to pay for all that? They need higher prices.”

Energy boost

OPEC and its partners next meet formally on June 22 but a ministerial monitoring panel will gather in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on Friday and are expected to make noises about the broader supply and demand in the oil market.

Resource stocks were the big winners from Thursday’s romp higher in prices. Chinese blue chips ended up 1.1 per cent and MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan added 0.9 per cent, with energy up more than 2.6 per cent.

Japan’s Nikkei faded late in the day to end up 0.15 per cent, but basic materials and utilities both climbed more than 2 per cent.

Industrial and commodities-focused stocks also led the pack in Europe though the pan-regional STOXX 600 showed signs of fatigue after a two-day rally that had taken it to a six-week high.

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The bullish sentiment in markets comes amid wider optimism about economic growth. The global economy is expected to expand this year at its fastest pace since 2010, the latest Reuters polls of over 500 economists worldwide suggest, but trade protectionism could quickly slow it down.

Investors were also relieved that no new U.S. demands on trade came out of a summit between Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and U.S. President Donald Trump.

E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 were pointing to a broadly steady start in New York later where traders were already digesting the latest flurry of earnings including from Blackstone and Philip Morris.

Wall Street had also seen hefty gains in the energy and industrial indexes late on Wednesday, though that was offset by softness in sectors such as consumer staples and financials.

IBM’s 7.5 per cent drop was the biggest drag on the S&P after the technology company’s quarterly profit margins missed Wall Street targets.

Dollar Dithers

In currency markets, the U.S. dollar remained rangebound – its index barely budged at 89.59. It gained a touch on the yen to 107.46 yen, but stayed short of recent peaks at 107.78.
The euro hovered at US$1.2373, within striking distance of the week’s top of US$1.2413, while Turkey’s lira shuffled back having had its best day in more than a year on Wednesday after President Tayyip Erdogan declared early elections.

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“The conventional wisdom is that (political) stability, even if it is not the form that you might choose, allows investment flows to continue.” said Tom Clarke, a cross-asset co-portfolio manager at William Blair Funds.

The strength in commodity prices helped the Australian dollar easily weather unexpectedly soft jobs data, with employment rising by a meager 4,900 in March.

Figures out from New Zealand had also showed annual inflation there had slowed to just 1.1 per cent in the first quarter, underlining expectations that interest rates would remain at record lows for many more months to come.

A soft Swiss franc stayed near the 1.20 to the euro mark it used to be capped at by the country’s central bank, while the recently-revitalized pound held its ground despite weak British retail sales data.

© Thomson Reuters 2018

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    Commodities are on a ‘crazy’ ride after Saudi talk of $100 oil (2024)

    FAQs

    Does Saudi Arabia make money from oil? ›

    The state-owned energy giant pumps out oil at a rate no other single company can match—at margins that are the envy of every competitor. Its revenues, which reached $440 billion in 2023, make up about 40% of Saudi Arabia's GDP.

    How much oil do we receive from Saudi Arabia? ›

    The United States imported roughly 456,000 barrels of crude oil per day from Saudi Arabia in 2022.

    Does Saudi Arabia hold a lot of oil does it use a lot of oil compared to other countries? ›

    Oil Consumption in Saudi Arabia

    Saudi Arabia ranks 6th in the world for oil consumption, accounting for about 3.4% of the world's total consumption of 97,103,871 barrels per day.

    What impact does oil have on Saudi Arabia? ›

    The discovery of oil also changed the demographics of the kingdom. Today, millions of foreign workers—from the U.S., India, Pakistan, Ethiopia, and the Middle East—live and work in Saudi Arabia. having to do with the social characteristics and statistics of a population.

    Who is the number one oil company in the US? ›

    ExxonMobil: The largest oil and gas company in the US, ExxonMobil, is based in Irving, Texas, and has operations in over 200 countries. The company explores for, produces, and refines oil and operates chemical and power generation facilities.

    Is Saudi Arabia richer than the US? ›

    America's GDP hit a staggering $20.49 trillion in 2019, beating every other economy on the planet. The US is so incredibly wealthy, many states are actually richer than entire countries, including affluent nations such as Switzerland and Saudi Arabia.

    How many years of oil is left in Saudi Arabia? ›

    Saudi Arabia's proved oil reserves amount to some 102 billion barrels. That means that if Saudi Arabia stopped discovering new oil fields today and maintained its current production level of about 10.8 million barrels per day, it would have enough oil to last for about 26 years.

    Who does the US buy oil from? ›

    The top five source countries of U.S. gross petroleum imports in 2023 were Canada, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Brazil. Note: Ranking in the table is based on gross imports by country of origin. Net import volumes in the table may not equal gross imports minus exports because of independent rounding of data.

    Does the US rely on Saudi oil? ›

    Since 1977, the percentage shares of U.S. total petroleum and crude oil imports from OPEC countries have generally declined. Saudi Arabia, the largest OPEC petroleum exporter to the United States, was the source of 7% of U.S. total petroleum imports and 7% of U.S. crude oil imports.

    Will oil ever run out? ›

    It's estimated that known oil-deposits will run out by 2052. Realistically, we may never run out of oil because, given the depth of the Earth's core, there will be new wells to discover. That said, it's highly likely that the practice of mining such depths will become economically unviable.

    Which country has the most untapped oil reserves? ›

    Thanks to the shale oil boom, the US is now sitting on more oil reserves than Russia, which estimates as having 256 billion barrels of untapped oil. The next-richest countries in terms of oil after that are: Saud Arabia (212 billion), Canada (167 billion), Iran (143 billion) and Brazil (120 billion).

    Does Saudi Arabia have anything other than oil? ›

    Apart from petroleum, the Kingdom's other natural resources include natural gas, iron ore, gold, and copper. The national currency is the riyal. The Sovereign is the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, HM King Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud. Saudi Arabia is a Founder Member of OPEC.

    Who owns the oil in Saudi Arabia? ›

    By 1980, the Saudi government had bought out all the original shareholders and owned 100% of the company. Eight years later, the Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Saudi Aramco) was officially established. Aramco has fuelled decades of prosperity in Saudi Arabia.

    What country has the most oil? ›

    Having more than 300 billion barrels of oil reserves, Venezuela has the most oil reserves in the world. Saudi Arabia has the second-largest oil reserves globally. Venezuela still faces economic difficulties in spite of its enormous natural resource base.

    Is Saudi oil running out? ›

    Saudi Arabia is unlikely to completely run out of oil in the foreseeable future. Here's a breakdown of the situation: * Proven Reserves: Saudi Arabia holds a vast amount of proven oil reserves, estimated to be around 266 billion barrels (as of 2016).

    How much of Saudi Arabia's income is from oil exports? ›

    Saudi Arabia is the largest generator of net oil export revenue for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). In 2022, its oil export revenues totaled 311 billion U.S. dollars, compared to Iraq's 131 billion U.S. dollars.

    What percentage of Saudi Arabia's annual budget is paid for by oil revenue? ›

    Oil revenues underwent a 12 percent decrease to SR754. 56 billion, constituting 62 percent of the budget's revenues.

    Is Saudi still dependent on oil? ›

    It is classified as an oil-dependent economy because as of 2022 it earns 80% of its export income through oil and more than 40% of its GDP depends on petroleum exports, making it the third-most oil-reliant country in the world after Kuwait and Libya.

    Why is Saudi Aramco so profitable? ›

    Saudi Aramco is the world's largest oil producer and the world's most profitable company. The company began drilling for oil in 1938. It is primarily state-owned but raised $29.4 billion in a 2019 IPO and a greenshoe option in 2020. Moody's rated the company an A1 because of its credit links to the Saudi government.

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