Bitcoin’s big day on Wall Street (2024)

Cryptocurrency’s journey into the mainstream hit a major milestone this week when the first exchange-traded fund linked to bitcoin made its stock market debut. Put more simply, that means that anyone with a brokerage account will soon be able to buy and sell a bitcoin-backed financial product on the stock market. This comes after years of US financial regulators shying away from cryptocurrency, which is notoriously volatile. But now, it looks as though the government is ready to try new things.

The debut was a big hit. After executives from ProShares, the Maryland-based company behind the ETF, rang the bell at the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday morning, the product topped $1 billion in trading volume on its first day. That makes it one of the top ETF debuts in history. Later that day, the price of bitcoin soared past its all-time high of $64,895 to a new record of $66,975. Experts don’t actually seem that surprised.

“It was a blockbuster, smash, home run debut,” Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, told me. “This brings a lot of legitimacy and eyeballs into the crypto space.”

But before we get into why that is, you probably have a few more questions about the terms being thrown around here. For example, what on Earth is an “exchange-traded fund linked to bitcoin?” What does “futures-based” mean? And do most people really need to pay attention to cryptocurrency after so many years of probably not paying attention to cryptocurrency? Let’s walk through these questions one by one.

An exchange-traded fund, or ETF, is a basket of securities tied to the price of assets, like stocks, bonds, or commodities, that can be bought or sold on stock exchanges; anyone with a brokerage account can trade ETFs. An ETF linked to bitcoin, naturally, is tied to the price of bitcoin, and under the Investment Company Act of 1940, all new ETFs must register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This detail is important because the agency’s approval of a bitcoin ETF suggests that it’s open to allowing more products tied to cryptocurrency to be traded. While the SEC has not considered cryptocurrencies to be securities in the past, the latest development suggests that its views on the matter are evolving.

But it seems it will take some time before the SEC decides if it will allow bitcoin trading on the stock market. The new ProShares fund, which is called the Bitcoin Strategy ETF, is futures-based. That means the fund tracks bitcoin futures contracts traded on the highly regulated Chicago Mercantile Exchange. In other words, the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF doesn’t contain bitcoin itself but rather bets on the future price of bitcoin. In a Tuesday CNBC appearance, SEC chairman Gary Gensler pointed out that the new product will be overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the SEC’s sister agency, which will provide some protection to investors — but it is “still a highly speculative asset class.”

Despite those tricky details, this new bitcoin-based ETF is a big deal. The cryptocurrency community has been angling for a financial product like this for years, but regulators have been hesitant to approve one. Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss pitched the first ever bitcoin-based ETF in 2013, but the SEC rejected their first application four years later — and again in 2018 — citing the volatility of the crypto market. Since then, the SEC has delayed decisions on various bitcoin-based ETFs, but it’s currently considering several new proposals, which are subject to a 75-day review period after companies submit them. If the SEC does nothing, which is what happened in the case of ProShares, the funds can start trading. In the next couple of weeks, the SEC review periods for cryptocurrency-based proposals from other companies, including Valkyrie Investments, Invesco, and VanEck, will end as well.

“It’s not that this particular ETF is going to bring in hundreds of billions of dollars or anything,” Balchunas explained. But it’s an important moment because “It’s a bridge to this whole other world that probably isn’t that into crypto and might start to be, now that it’s being delivered in the format they like.”

In other words, more crypto-based ETFs are on the way. And if Gensler sees these new financial products being traded without incident, his SEC might open the door for even more, including those that actually contain cryptocurrencies, like bitcoin and ethereum. The very existence of these ETFs not only means that investing in crypto is easier. It also means that bitcoin has more in common with gold than it ever has before.

This story first published in the Recode newsletter. Sign up here so you don’t miss the next one!

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Bitcoin’s big day on Wall Street (1)

Bitcoin’s big day on Wall Street (2024)

FAQs

What will happen after Bitcoin halving in 2024? ›

After the halving, the rate of issuance of new bitcoin as well as the rewards for successful bitcoin miners are cut in half. There can only be 21 million bitcoin, and fewer new tokens entering circulation could impact bitcoin prices. That's why the halving is watched closely by miners and investors alike.

Do Wall Street banks want to buy Bitcoin directly from miners? ›

Wall Street banks seek Bitcoin from miners amid supply concerns and institutional interest. Bitcoin halving adds complexity to supply dynamics, potentially intensifying scarcity. A leading Bitcoin mining firm receives direct inquiries from major banks, reflecting heightened demand.

Will BTC go up after halving? ›

“It's pretty much Economics 101” that bitcoin prices go up after halving, according to Sevens Report analyst Tom Essaye, who explained that so long as demand doesn't decrease and new supply goes down, the “only thing left to move is price.”

Is Bitcoin halving good or bad? ›

Bitcoin halving is considered bullish because each event reduces the rate at which future bitcoins are created. This then boosts the scarcity and value of existing bitcoins.

How much will 1 Bitcoin be worth in 2025? ›

BTC Price Prediction 2024-2030
YearMinimum Price / Maximum Price
2024$82,000 to $85,000
2025$110,000 to $115,000

How much will Bitcoin be worth in the next 5 years? ›

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2030
YearPrice
2024$ 71,140.80
2025$ 74,697.84
2026$ 78,432.73
2027$ 82,354.37
1 more row

Who owns most Bitcoin? ›

So, who are the top holders of BTC? According to the Bitcoin research and analysis firm River Intelligence, Satoshi Nakamoto, the anonymous creator behind Bitcoin, is listed as the top BTC holder as of 2024. The company notes that Satoshi Nakamoto holds about 1.1m BTC tokens in about 22,000 different addresses.

Who is buying all the Bitcoin? ›

K33 analysts think that the biggest holder is Grayscale, which started as a digital currency investment firm. It is estimated to have around 450,000 bitcoins. Other giants include BlackRock (150,000) and Fidelity (102,000).

Are whales buying Bitcoin? ›

Notably, the amount of money invested by whales in Bitcoin has more than doubled from $57 billion to $122 billion since the beginning of the year, based on the observed "realized cap" of whale coins.

How much will BTC be worth in next 10 years? ›

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2030
YearPrice
2025$ 72,896.89
2026$ 76,541.73
2027$ 80,368.82
2030$ 93,036.95
1 more row

What is the maximum total supply of Bitcoin that will ever exist? ›

Since Satoshi Nakamoto first created Bitcoin, it has always had a clearly defined maximum supply of 21 million coins. The rules of the Bitcoin protocol state that when the number of bitcoin in circulation reaches the maximum supply limit of 21 million, no new units of bitcoin will be issued.

How many Bitcoin halvings are left? ›

The monetary policy of Bitcoin allows for a total of 32 halvings of which three took place since its inception. So, there are 29 halvings left which amounts to roughly 116 years.

Should I put money into Bitcoin before halving? ›

Investing in Bitcoin (BTC) before the halving can be a good idea, as historically, the price of Bitcoin has generally increased leading up to the event. However, it's important to remember that cryptocurrency markets are volatile and unpredictable, and the price of Bitcoin could go either way after the halving.

What will happen when Bitcoin halves in 2024? ›

Halvings reduce the rate at which new coins are created and thus lower the available amount of new supply. Bitcoin last halved on April 19, 2024, resulting in a block reward of 3.125 BTC. The final halving is expected to occur in 2140, when the number of bitcoins circulating will reach its maximum supply of 21 million.

What happens every 4 years in Bitcoin? ›

Bitcoin halving is when the reward for bitcoin mining is cut in half. Halving takes place every four years. The next halving is expected to occur sometime in 2028. The halving policy was written into bitcoin's mining algorithm to counteract inflation by maintaining scarcity.

How much will 1 Bitcoin be worth in 2024? ›

Our most recent Bitcoin price forecast indicates that its value will increase by 14.58% and reach $66,426 by May 03, 2024.

Should I buy Bitcoin before or after halving? ›

Consider this: if it were universally anticipated that bitcoin's value would surge immediately following the 2024 halving, investors would likely move to acquire bitcoin before the event, driving up its price in the present rather than in the future.

What happens when Bitcoin halving ends? ›

For instance, after the first halving, the reward for bitcoin mining dropped to 25 BTC per block. The last halving should occur in 2140. At that point, there will be 21 million BTC in circulation and no more coins will be created. From there, miners will just be paid with transaction fees.

Will Bitcoin halving affect other coins? ›

When its supply is reduced through halving, and if the demand stays constant or increases, we often see a ripple effect on the prices of other cryptocurrencies.

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